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Methodology

Wildfire & Smoke Intelligence

How PeakScout assesses fire risk, tracks active perimeters, and evaluates smoke quality — every input disclosed, the math stays server-side.

1. Philosophy & Purpose

Wildfire is the most consequential land management threat in the Mountain West. It can close thousands of acres with no advance warning, generate smoke that makes outdoor activity hazardous for weeks, and displace wildlife across entire ecosystems. For adventurers, wildfire season is not a remote possibility — it is a recurring operational reality from May through October.

PeakScout's wildfire intelligence exists to answer two questions before you leave the trailhead: Is the area safe to enter? and Will the air be breathable? The first requires knowing where fires are burning and how they are moving. The second requires knowing what that smoke is doing to the air you will be breathing at elevation.

We aggregate from official government sources — land management agencies, the National Interagency Fire Center, and InciWeb — and present that data in the context of your specific route. We do not generate fire predictions or simulate fire behavior. We surface what agencies know, when they know it, and put it alongside your trip plan.

2. What PeakScout Measures

The wildfire system evaluates three distinct dimensions. They are scored independently and presented together so you can make an informed decision:

Active Fire Perimeters

GeoJSON polygon overlays representing the current mapped boundary of active wildfires, sourced from official government mapping (IR perimeter updates, InciWeb situation reports, USFS incident tracking). Perimeters are color-coded by severity — emergency closures are red, warning closures are orange, watches are yellow. The map layer shows up to 30 active fires per state.

Fire perimeter polygons carry an inherent lag: the actual fire edge may be ahead of the most recent satellite pass. During rapid spread events, perimeters may be substantially outdated. Always check with the managing ranger district before assuming a perimeter edge represents the actual boundary.

Air Quality Index (AQI)

AQI reflects the concentration of ground-level ozone and particulate matter (PM2.5) — the pollutants most directly harmful to human health during wildfire events. The scale runs from 0 (ideal) to 500+ (hazardous). PeakScout shows the AQI from the nearest representative monitoring station, sourced from Open-Meteo's Air Quality API, which aggregates AirNow EPA station data.

0–50Good
51–100Moderate
101–150Unhealthy
Sensitive
151–200Unhealthy
201–300Very Unhealthy
301+Hazardous

Fire Proximity Risk

Distance from your location or saved trailhead to the nearest active fire centroid, expressed in miles. Within 5 miles triggers a high-proximity alert. Within 15 miles triggers a proximity advisory. This is not a guarantee of smoke impact — wind direction, terrain, and fire intensity all affect whether smoke reaches a given location — but it is a strong directional signal.

3. Data Inputs

PeakScout draws from official government sources exclusively. We do not use third-party commercial fire data or proprietary satellite imagery. Here is exactly what feeds the system:

🔥
InciWeb
National Incident Information System fire situation reports. Authoritative current fire locations, names, sizes, and containment status. Updated every 15 minutes during active incidents.
🛰️
NIFC IR Perimeters
National Interagency Fire Center infrared satellite mapping. Polygon boundaries from the latest IR overpass. Primary source for fire perimeter geometry.
🏔️
USFS ArcGIS
US Forest Service ArcGIS REST API — trail and area closure data including fire-related restrictions, area closures, and road closures due to fire activity.
🌲
BLM SRTS
Bureau of Land Management Fire and Aviation Situation Reporting. Federal land fire status and restrictions. Polled every 60 minutes.
🅰️
AirNow / Open-Meteo AQI
EPA AirNow station data aggregated by Open-Meteo Air Quality API. AQI readings from the nearest representative EPA monitoring station. Updates hourly.
🏛️
NPS Alerts
National Park Service real-time alerts including fire closures, smoke advisories, and area restrictions across 63 national parks. Polled every 30 minutes.
Full source documentation: All data providers, update frequencies, and accuracy limitations are documented on our Data Sources page.

4. How Risk Is Assessed

PeakScout does not produce fire danger ratings (that is the domain of Predictive Services and RAWS stations). Instead, we assess three risk dimensions and surface them in the context of your planned activity. Here is the conceptual framework:

Fire Proximity Risk

Fires within 5 miles of a trailhead: active hazard — smoke impact is highly likely and official area closures may be in effect. The Go Score hard-blocks at 0 for any active fire within this distance.

Fires within 15 miles: proximity advisory — smoke impact is possible depending on wind direction and fire intensity. Elevated concern for sensitive populations (asthma, respiratory conditions). Check for official area restrictions.

Fires beyond 15 miles: negligible proximity risk — fire itself is not a direct concern. Air quality may still be elevated due to regional smoke transport.

Smoke Quality Assessment

AQI is mapped to activity advisories: AQI 0–50 (Good) is safe for all outdoor activity including strenuous exercise. AQI 51–100 (Moderate) is acceptable for most activities but sensitive groups should consider reducing prolonged exertion. AQI 101–150 (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups) means sensitive individuals should limit outdoor activities — the general population can proceed with awareness. AQI 151+ (Unhealthy / Very Unhealthy) means all outdoor activity carries meaningful respiratory risk regardless of fitness level.

Go Score Interaction

Active fire perimeters within 5 miles and official fire-related area closures trigger a Go Score hard-block (score = 0). Elevated AQI (301+) applies a significant penalty during monsoon season (July–September), reflecting the compounding risk of smoke plus afternoon thunderstorm activity on exposed terrain.

What we do not assess: Fire weather indices (ERC, BI, FM100), live fuel moisture content, or fire behavior modeling. These require specialized meteorological data and modeling systems that are beyond the scope of this platform. For fire weather forecasts, consult Predictive Services or your local land management agency.

5. Interpretation Guide

The smoke map layer shows you a lot of information — here is how to read it alongside your trip planning:

The AQI Circle

The AQI indicator on the map represents the most recent reading from the nearest EPA monitoring station. This is a single point, not an interpolation across the landscape. Wind, terrain, and elevation can produce dramatically different air quality at your trailhead than what the map shows. When AQI is elevated, assume conditions at elevation are worse.

Fire Perimeter Polygons

Polygons show the last mapped fire boundary. During active fire spread, the actual perimeter may extend beyond what the polygon shows. Fire perimeter polygons are not real-time — they reflect the latest IR satellite overpass, which may be hours old. Look for the "last updated" timestamp in the map legend to gauge freshness.

Layer Toggle: AQI vs Fire Perimeters vs Both

Use the layer toggle to focus your attention. If you are primarily concerned about air quality, show only the AQI layer. If you are planning a specific route and need to check proximity to active fires, show only fire perimeters. In most cases, viewing both simultaneously gives the most complete picture.

When to Use the Data

The wildfire layer is most useful in three scenarios: pre-trip planning (checking conditions 24–72 hours ahead), day-of decision making (confirming conditions haven't changed since yesterday), and during multi-day trips (checking from camp whether smoke is building). During active fire season (May–October), checking the wildfire layer before every trip is strongly recommended regardless of weather conditions.

6. Smart Smoke Alerts

PeakScout can proactively alert you when smoke conditions or fire proximity change at your saved locations. Smart alerts integrate with the existing alert subscription infrastructure and support three trigger types:

Alerts are delivered to your registered email address and can be managed from your notification preferences. The 4-hour cooldown prevents alert spam during rapidly evolving situations.

To subscribe to smoke alerts: save a location in PeakScout, then enable smoke notifications for that location from your dashboard.

7. What the Page Shows vs. Hides

Transparency has a boundary. We publish every data source, every trigger threshold, and every interpretation guide — but the specific distance calculations and aggregation logic stays server-side. Here is the line:

What You See (Output)

What Stays Server-Side (Protected)

We protect the calculation constants to prevent two things: gaming (calculating exactly how close a fire can be before it triggers a block) and misapplication (applying our proximity logic to terrain or scenarios it was not designed for). The outputs — perimeters, AQI, proximity advisories — give you everything you need for a safe trip decision without exposing the underlying math.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does PeakScout measure for wildfire?
Three distinct dimensions: fire risk (likelihood of new fire starts based on weather and fuel conditions), fire behavior (how existing fires are likely to spread given current conditions), and smoke quality (current air quality index for outdoor activity safety). Each dimension uses different data sources and is scored independently.
How accurate are the fire perimeter polygons?
Fire perimeter polygons come from official government sources — InciWeb, NIFC IR mapping, USFS ArcGIS — and represent the most recent available mapping. Perimeters are updated every 15 minutes during active fires. There is an inherent lag between the actual fire edge and what appears on satellite/IR mapping, so perimeters may be slightly outdated during rapid spread. Always verify with the managing agency.
Does smoke quality reflect conditions at trail elevations?
The AQI data shown reflects conditions at the nearest monitoring station, which may be at a lower elevation than your target trail. Wildfire smoke can be significantly worse at higher elevations due to thermal inversion patterns and direct proximity to fire plumes. When AQI is elevated, assume trail-level conditions are worse than reported — add a buffer.
How does wildfire affect the Go Score?
Active fire perimeters within 5 miles of a trailhead trigger a hard-block that sets the Go Score to 0. An active official closure from a land management agency (USFS, NPS, BLM) due to fire also sets Go Score to 0. Smoke quality (AQI 301+) applies a -40pt penalty to the Go Score when monsoon season conditions are present.
Why doesn’t PeakScout show all active fires on the map?
The smoke layer displays fires that PeakScout has successfully aggregated from official sources and where centroid coordinates are available. Some fires may not appear if they are very small, newly reported, or sourced from agencies we do not yet poll. We aggregate InciWeb, NIFC IR mapping, USFS ArcGIS, NPS alerts, and BLM SRTS. Coverage is broad but not complete.
What should I do if the map shows a fire near my planned trail?
Check the source URL for the fire closure and contact the managing agency directly. Do not rely solely on the map — call the ranger station, check the USFS or BLM website, and verify conditions before driving to the trailhead. Road closures and area restrictions can change rapidly during active fire incidents.

Cite This Page

PeakScout. "Wildfire & Smoke Intelligence Methodology — How PeakScout Assesses Fire Risk and Air Quality." PeakScout Outdoor Intelligence, 22 May 2026, https://peakscout.polsia.app/methodology/wildfire.